Friday, June 5, 2015

Sturdy U.S. jobs report boosts chances of Fed rate hike WASHINGTON | BY LUCIA MUTIKANI

U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in May and wages picked up, signs of momentum in the economy that bolster prospects for an interest rate hike in September.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 280,000 last month, the largest gain since December, the Labor Department said on Friday.
While the unemployment rate rose to 5.5 percent from a near seven-year low of 5.4 percent in April that was because more people, likely new college graduates, entered the labor force, indicating confidence in the jobs market.
Payrolls for March and April were revised to show 32,000 more jobs created than previously reported. That together with an eight cent gain in average hourly earnings raises the chances of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy this year.
"This certainly puts more ammunition in the Fed's plan to start lift-off in September," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
The dollar rallied against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. government debt dropped sharply. U.S. stock index futures fell.
Doubts had sprung up in financial markets over whether the U.S. central bank would be able to raise interest rates this year after weak data on consumer spending and industrial production suggested the economy lacked vigor early in the second quarter after slumping at the start of the year.
The Fed has kept overnight rates near zero since December 2008. Officials from the U.S. central bank will meet on June 16-17.
GAINING MOMENTUM
U.S. gross domestic product contracted at a 0.7 percent annual pace in the first quarter, although the drop probably exaggerated the economy's weakness given a mix of temporary factors at play.
The sturdy jobs reports joined May automobile sales and manufacturing data in suggesting that growth was gaining some traction after getting off to a slow start in the second quarter, in part because of the lingering effects of a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 225,000 last month and the unemployment rate steady at 5.4 percent. May payroll gains lifted job growth above last year's average of 260,000 jobs per month.
The labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, increased 0.1 percentage point to 62.9 percent last month.
A broad measure of joblessness that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment was unchanged at 10.8 percent.
The increase in average hourly earnings took the year-on-year gain to 2.3 percent, the largest rise since August 2013.
Wages are poised to push higher against the backdrop of firming demand for entry-level workers and a better composition of jobs that are being created. In addition, many states have raised the minimum wage and some large corporations have been increasing pay for workers.
Walmart (WMT.N), the largest private employer in the United States, this week announced it would raise minimum wages for more than 100,000 U.S. workers, its second wage hike this year.
Payroll gains last month were broad-based, though the mining sector purged more jobs as it works through the thousands of cuts announced by oil-field companies.
Manufacturing employment increased 7,000 after adding 1,000 jobs in April. Mining payrolls fell 18,000, logging the fifth straight month of declines.
Schlumberger (SLB.N) has announced about 20,000 layoffs this year. Baker Hughes (BHI.N) and Halliburton (HAL.N) are also cutting thousands of jobs.
Construction employment increased 17,000, reflecting a strengthening housing market. The average workweek was steady at 34.5 hours.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

What to look for in Friday’s U.S. jobs report


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of new jobs created in U.S. has tapered off since late last year. Is it a speed bump — or the start of a longer-term slowdown?
The employment report for May issued on Friday should offer fresh clues. Economists look for another solid 200,000-plus gain in new jobs and an uptick in wages.
Here are four things to watch in Friday’s report.
Pace of hiring
The economy has added an average of 194,000 new jobs a month in 2015, a rate strong enough to gradually reduce the unemployment rate over time. Yet it’s much slower than the monthly pace of 281,000 new jobs during the second half of 2014.
“We can’t keep going at 200,000 new jobs] a month. That’s not going to happen.”
- Ethan Harris, Merrill Lynch
At some point, job creation has to slow. That’s the inevitable result of an economy growing just 2% a year, especially as the unemployment rate heads toward 5%.
“We can’t keep going at 200,000 a month,” said Ethan Harris, co-head of global economic research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “That’s not going to happen.”
Yet Harris and most other economists don’t expect hiring to decelerate until next year at the earliest. They point to the high level of job openings and a surge in hiring by smaller businesses that had kept payrolls lean for years.
The number of new jobs in May is expected to have risen 210,000, according to economists polled by MarketWatch. Only a gain of less than 175,000 would be viewed as a sign of trouble.
The ‘real’ unemployment rate
The official U.S. jobless rate has sunk to a seven-year low of 5.4%, but that makes a chronic unemployment problem look better than it is. The real unemployment rate is 10.8%, according to an alternative measure known as U6.